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Abstract Twenty-four new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon ages from sediment cores in nine lakes associated with the Shipshewana and Sturgis moraines in northern Indiana and southern Michigan estimate when recession of the Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet was underway in the southern Great Lakes region, USA. Average OSL ages of 23.4 ± 2.2 ka for the Shipshewana Moraine and 19.7 ± 2.2 ka for the Sturgis Moraine are considered minimum limiting deglacial ages for these recessional moraines. The much younger radiocarbon ages are consistent with other regional radiocarbon ages from lakes, and record climate amelioration around ~16.5 cal ka BP. Early recession of the interlobate Saginaw Lobe was well underway by 23.4 ± 2.2 ka, when the adjacent Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes were a few hundred kilometers farther south and near their maximum southerly limits. The results provide the first time constraints when sediment from the Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes began filling the accommodation space left by the Saginaw Lobe. The difference between the oldest radiocarbon and OSL age is 7400 yr for the Shipshewana Moraine and 3400 yr for the Sturgis Moraine. 

Abstract Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic 1,2 . Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches 1 , while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach 2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities 3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end. 

Abstract The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.